Strengthening Centralized Economy Won’t Prevent Bitcoin Price From These Important Supports

Rubikkav
4 min readMar 12, 2023
  • Bitcoin price fell in March after two announcements by Silvergate Capital Corporation.
  • The fall to $19000 caused losses of USD 380 million for those who bet on a rise.

Bitcoin (BTC) market experienced a situation similar to the previous one this week. In both periods, it went lower just after an announcement from Silvergate Capital Corporation, the parent company of the bank that offers cryptocurrency services Silvergate Bank. However, this time, the fall was much deeper.

This company communicated on the first day of March that it was evaluating whether it could continue operating this year. Given this fact, the price of bitcoin went from USD 23,000 to USD 22,000. Then, the second week of the month, it dropped two more notches to USD 19,000 when said company finally announced its intention to close.

With such a fall, bitcoin went on to trade at its lowest price in 2 months, which caused losses of USD 380 million for traders who had invested due to a rise in futures. That level of losses had not been seen for 3 months.

All this panorama occurs due to the importance that Silvergate Bank has as a banking ally of the cryptocurrency industry since 2013. Therefore, it is vital to closely follow the process of closing its parent company, especially if it fulfills its duties as payments to employees and users, as it could continue to impact the market.

In addition, the announcement of its closure took place one day after the Fed (United States Federal Reserve) issued a negative economic outlook. With such an event, the main shares of the American powerhouse and bitcoin reacted slightly lower, despite the fact that the cryptocurrency no longer appears so correlated to the United States market.

Perplexed Euphoria

In the past week, the funding rate for perpetual futures on all exchanges turned negative. This means that most of the positions in these markets were betting on the fall in the price of bitcoin, as it actually ended up happening.

As seen on the Glassnode chart, this indicates a change in trend, as there was only one previous time in the month that the rate was negative. Except for that occasion and this week, the funding rate remained positive, reflecting bullish market sentiment

It Will Hit The Bottom

With the collapse of many major banks it will not be inevitable that Bitcoin will step on the support of the monthly EMA100 near $16644.31. It is clear that there is a bearish pattern after the close of the month of January and February. The accumulation persists in the area of USD 16644.31 and USD 21149.99.

The strength of the selling pressure continues to drown out the bulls that want to drive the price above the 50-day SMA at approximately $24230.39. But only the trend will progressively change when Bitcoin breaks above the resistances of $26635.88 and $27050.07 respectively; meaning the break points in an upward direction to be able to reach $33233.99 very closely as the next Fibonacci line.

In addition, it was already noticeable that due to such generous negative news in recent days and with the pattern of the sunset star, it was evident that Bitcoin would go in the direction of the bears, creating a false sense of rise and causing many bullish bets to go to the drain.

For now there are positive signs, the crossing of the moving averages in the stochastic RSI but with a tendency to accumulate; ADX stepping on the low funds and indicating the start of a reversal; and excessive crossing of the moving averages in the Fisher transform, indicating an initial upward trend.

Maybe, collapse of the centralized banking system will attract new big capital investors. Consequently many sardines that wanted to drown in the waters of the market.

Death Cross Isn’t Over Yet

Weekly Bitcoin still does not present strong bullish signals. It can be believed that the movements of March and April could be struggling to overcome the crossroads of death that began exactly in the last week of January.

When this technical article was written, the price was losing strength, with a weekly close above $21149.99. But recognizing that the last few days the market was bombarded with negative news, it is evident that Bitcoin could be stepping on the moving average of the CKS indicator at approximately $18314.66.

Above this indicator the bears will still win the fight, but when Bitcoin steps on the support of $18314.66, you will see how the price will be driven by the bullets of the bulls.

For there to be a real bullish trend in the medium term, it is necessary to wait for the trend reversal that will be indicated by the Ichimoku cloud cluster. For now they are identified as accumulation zones between the support mentioned above; $21149.99 and $24999.99 as breaking point.

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